AI Stack Tracker

Fabrication

Leading-edge chipmaking remains concentrated in allied foundries, while China is constrained by access to cutting-edge tools and yields at the smallest nodes.

Measure
Leading-Edge Node Capacity (<= 7nm equivalent)
Competitive Position
USA & Allies 9
China 3
Scores determined by expert panel

Fabrication

This layer captures who can reliably produce leading‑edge wafers at scale. Capacity is not enough; yield, ramp speed, and risk concentration decide real output.

Leading‑edge capacity
Share (%) = (Leading‑edge wafer starts / Global leading‑edge wafer starts) × 100
Effective output
Effective Output = Wafer starts × Good‑die yield × Die per wafer (at target performance bin)

What matters in this layer

Frontier accelerators and high‑end CPUs are constrained by access to the best nodes and stable high yield. Concentration creates systemic risk: a single geography can determine global compute growth.

Yield learning and ramp speed

The strategic advantage is how fast a fab can move from first silicon to high‑volume manufacturing. Tooling, metrology, and process discipline compound.

Geopolitical concentration

When leading capacity is concentrated, disruption risk becomes a supply‑chain constraint. Resilience requires both geographic diversification and compatible equipment ecosystems.

Related: Critical Minerals

Fabrication relies on access to critical minerals for semiconductor manufacturing, including rare earths, gallium, germanium, and other essential materials that form the foundation of the supply chain.